Topic: Elections

First Māori election poll reveals a red-wash

By Te Kāea

Māori Television’s first election poll reveals Jacinda Ardern soaring ahead as the preferred Prime Minister with Māori voters.

The poll was taken 1 August – 17 August 2017, after Ardern was made leader of Labour.

It places Ardern well ahead with 42.2% support among the seven Māori electorates as preferred Prime Minister. 

“It’s really encouraging, but I also put that down to both the ideas that we’ve been promoting and the hard work of our Māori MPs,” Ardern told Māori Television today.

New Zealand First Leader, Winston Peters, always a favourite among Māori voters, is the closest contender but well behind on 17.5%.  Prime Minister Bill English is even further back on 5.5%.

Rounding up the top five is Deputy Labour Leader Kelvin Davis at 3.3% and Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell on 3%.

The poll, conducted by Reid Research, sampled more than 1354 voters in the seven Māori electorates.

Ardern was popular with women and men. But it’s among young Māori, who represent high numbers of voters that she scores again.

Among 18-24 year olds, Ardern nailed 55.6%.  Among 35 to 44 - 42.7%. Older voters weren’t immune either to the Jacinda Effect with 46.2% of voters aged 65+ backing Ardern as the preferred Prime Minister. 

In the same age brackets, Winston Peters scored 7.4% among the youngest voters and 19.4% among 65+.

Bill English also managed to score 7.4% among 18-24 year olds but Kelvin Davis and Te Ururoa failed to register in the youngest demographic. 

Metiria Turei, who stepped down as the Green Party co-leader, still has some support among young Māori, along with New Zealand First’s Shane Jones – both scoring 3.7% among 18-24 year olds.

“It’s all about mana wahine.  We know that Māori are fully in support of Māori women who have been in parliament a long time doing great work and I think it’s a real honour that they’re still thinking of me," said Turei.

The rise of Jacinda is further reflected in the support for Labour in the Party vote,

A total of 2515 voters were polled in the Māori seats 11 July – 17 August 2017.  When it came to preferred party, it was once again a red-wash.

Labour is well ahead on 46.5%; the Māori Party is second on 17.5%.

New Zealand First sits at third - 13.8%.

National lingers in single figures on 9.5%,

The Greens are up from the general seat polls, sitting at 9%.

Mana Movement and The Opportunities Party make an appearance at 1.8 and 1.5%.

Undecided voters – 4.9%.

While at third, New Zealand First has also made gains.

By comparison to Māori Television polls taken for the same period during the 2014 Election, Labour was ahead on 39.8%; the Māori Party was second at 17.5%; National third at 12.1%; Mana Movement 8.8%; Green Party Aotearoa 8.7% and New Zealand First at 8.6%.